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논문

Spatial Spreading of Infectious Disease via Local and National Mobility Networks in South Korea

https://doi.org/10.3938/jkps.71.1069

  • 저자Okyu Kwon; Woo-Sik Son*
  • 학술지Journal of the Korean Physical Society 71
  • 등재유형
  • 게재일자(2017)

We study the spread of infectious disease based on local- and national-scale mobility networks. We construct a local mobility network using data on urban bus services to estimate local-scale ment of people. We also construct a national mobility network from orientation-destination data of vehicular traffic between highway tollgates to evaluate national-scale ment of people. A metapopulation model is used to simulate the spread of epidemics. Thus, the number of infected people is simulated using a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model within the administrative division, and inter-division spread of infected people is determined through local and national mobility networks. In this paper, we consider two scenarios for epidemic spread. In the first, the infectious disease only spreads through local-scale ment of people, that is, the local mobility network. In the second, it spreads via both local and national mobility networks. For the former, the simulation results show infected people sequentially spread to neighboring divisions. Yet for the latter, we observe a faster spreading pattern to distant divisions. Thus, we confirm the national mobility network enhances synchronization among the incidence profiles of all administrative divisions.

We study the spread of infectious disease based on local- and national-scale mobility networks. We construct a local mobility network using data on urban bus services to estimate local-scale ment of people. We also construct a national mobility network from orientation-destination data of vehicular traffic between highway tollgates to evaluate national-scale ment of people. A metapopulation model is used to simulate the spread of epidemics. Thus, the number of infected people is simulated using a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model within the administrative division, and inter-division spread of infected people is determined through local and national mobility networks. In this paper, we consider two scenarios for epidemic spread. In the first, the infectious disease only spreads through local-scale ment of people, that is, the local mobility network. In the second, it spreads via both local and national mobility networks. For the former, the simulation results show infected people sequentially spread to neighboring divisions. Yet for the latter, we observe a faster spreading pattern to distant divisions. Thus, we confirm the national mobility network enhances synchronization among the incidence profiles of all administrative divisions.

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